On the eve of the draft, I'm doing a mock draft of my own. With a slate of pre-draft trade rumors, I waited as long as I could, but in about 24 hours, the draft will be in full swing. With so much uncertainty in a weak, yet deep draft, I'm sticking to just the lottery picks. Here's who I think will be the first 14 names called tomorrow night.
1. Cleveland Cavs- Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky.
Noel's draft stock was uncertain after his season-ending knee injury in February, but then for a few months, he was close to a consensus number one pick. Now, it's back to uncertainty, but I still take him first if I'm the Cavs. Seven foot athletes don't come around often. And while his offensive game is raw, what big man is polished when they enter the league? Only 19, Noel will get stronger and can be the defensive centerpiece of a team with one of the best young backcourts in the league. For big men entering the NBA, I focus mostly on shot-blocking and rebounding. And if the Cavs take Noel, they'll get college's best shot-blocker from last season.
2. Orlando Magic- Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana.
Originally I had Trey Burke going here, but a looming Eric Bledsoe for Arron Afflalo deal (which makes sense) was enough for me to make Oladipo the number two pick. The Magic need a ton of help, so why not take one of the sure bets in this year's draft. Oladipo will give it his all every night, and he's the best perimeter defender in the draft. The offense needs work, but if he can develop a consistent three-pointer, Oladipo will one of the best young two-way players in the league. All the Magic can do is improve on their NBA-worst record from last season. Orlando gets hustle and leadership with Oladipo.
3. Washington Wizards- Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown.
I said Oladipo was a sure bet in this draft, Porter is another one. He did it all last season for the Hoyas, and I think he can keep up his good work while staying in D.C. By the end of last season, the Wizards were absolutely one of the eight best teams in the East. With some lottery luck, they fell into the third pick, and Porter is falling into their laps here. Porter is a smart player who will do great with his space on the floor in the NBA. Space that will be plenty available while playing with John Wall and Bradley Beal. He's as NBA ready as anyone in this draft, and Porter is the final piece of a potentially great perimeter in D.C.
4. Charlotte Bobcats- Alex Len, C, Maryland.
The Bobcats had the worst roster in the league last year, yet only get the fourth pick in the draft. Luck definitely hasn't been on Charlotte's side in the MJ era. So why take a project center who just had surgery on his foot? The Bobcats need help everywhere, so drafting the potential in Len cannot really set them back too much. He's a natural center, something that is becoming more rare in today's NBA. If Len works out, he's Brook Lopez, but better on defense. If he busts, then he's like a dozen other big men. McClemore makes sense here too, but there will be plenty of scorers in next year's stacked draft. A draft in which the Bobcats will surely be picking top five in.
5. Phoenix Suns- Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas.
McClemore's gifts weren't always apparent on a balanced Kansas team last year, but when they were apparent, this kid could explode. A lights-out, yet streaky shooter, McLemore will be the best player available if he's there at number five. For Phoenix, who is a franchise quietly in bad shape, taking the best player available is a good strategy. Goran Dragic is an underrated point guard and the Suns best player. He can create shots for McLemore, who needs to be more aggressive as a pro. He's one of the best shooters and athletes in the draft, which is why McLemore is first on some analysts' big boards.
6. New Orleans Pelicans- Trey Burke, PG, Michigan.
I can't see college's best player from last season slipping any further than sixth in this draft. I've been in on Burke as a pro since before last season, and his heroic showings in the NCAA tournament only reinforced that. The Pelicans already have a decent backcourt on paper. Eric Gordon is a proven scorer and Greivis Vasquez was one of the most improved players last season. But Gordon has constant durability issues and Vasquez is not a pure point guard. In making Burke the first Pelican drafted, New Orleans gets the best point guard of the class and a guy who can get to the hole and possibly set up a lethal pick-and-roll with Anthony Davis.
7. Sacramento Kings- Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV.
I wish I saw more of Bennett in his one year of college. But hey, that happens when you play in the Mountain West for a one and done team in the NCAA tourney. Bennett, a Canadian national, is a tweener who's more power forward because of his strength. With this tweener label, you might steer clear of Bennett with Derrick Williams in mind, but a consistent three-point shot is the difference between Williams and Bennett. The Kings have a lot of holes in their roster as usual. The versatile Bennett makes sense here because he can play both forward spots.
8. Detroit Pistons- C.J. McCollum, PG, Lehigh.
McCollum's signature game came two years ago, when he lead 15th seed Lehigh to a win over Duke. He spent most of his senior year on the bench with a broken foot, but some impressive workouts have made McCollum the best small-school player in this draft. The obvious comparison is Damian Lillard, who came out of Weber State to win rookie of the year last season. McCollum might be a better shooter than Lillard, which is why he will be a combo guard in an NBA full of point guards already. Paired with Brandon Knight in Detroit, McCollum will look less like Lillard and more like Ben Gordon in his days with the Bulls.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia.
With such a great name, it's hard to imagine how KCP remained anonymous this past season. In a weak year for the SEC, he was the conference's best player on a bad Georgia team. He's a natural shooting guard and gifted scorer, who fills a need in Minnesota. It's no secret that the Wolves want to move up to grab Oladipo or McLemore. But if the teams at the top won't budge, the Wolves would be smart to stand pat and take Caldwell-Pope at nine.
10. Portland Trail Blazers- Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA.
Muhammad entered the season as one of the two best freshmen. Things haven't gone as smoothly from there, as his one year at UCLA was filled with controversy. Some say that Muhammad is no longer a lottery pick, but I think his NBA talent keeps him in the top ten. His strength and offensive game are the positives, but characters issues have weighed him down. On a talented Blazers team with strong leadership, Muhammad can step in at shooting guard or sixth man and help Portland try to sneak into the playoffs.
11. Philadelphia 76ers- Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana.
Clearly the Andrew Bynum trade didn't work out for the Sixers, so why not take a swing at a big man in this draft? There's no doubt that Zeller needs to get stronger, but he's still an NBA athlete who can run the floor like few seven footers. With a frontcourt that really only consists of Spencer Hawes, the Sixers need help. For all the criticism that he took after Indiana's early exit last season, Zeller fits the mold of an NBA big man, and will be helped by a good point guard in Jrue Holiday.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder- Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh.
Adams was not a great college player by any means. Every lottery has at least one project, and Adams is that guy. Fortunately, when you're a championship contender, you can afford to draft projects. From New Zealand, Adams has size, strength and athleticism, but he's not close to putting it all together. If taken by the Thunder, he will likely be a D-league guy. This pick is OKC's last piece of the Harden deal, and while they clearly missed the Beard last season, they won't miss Adams while he develops.
13. Dallas Mavericks- Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse.
The Mavs aren't used to picking in the lottery in the Mark Cuban era, but that's the case this year. MCW is a top ten player in the draft, and if he falls to number 13, Dallas should take him. Darren Collison wasn't the answer at point guard last year, but maybe the 6'6" Carter-Williams is. He's a gifted passer who can get into the lane, and his defense will be good since he's a Syracuse guy. The Mavs will surely make a few moves in free agency, but adding MCW to this veteran team would be the best possible start to their offseason.
14. Utah Jazz- Shane Larkin, PG, Miami.
With Larkin, the main question is size. Should the Jazz use their top pick on a guy who might be six foot. Well, unless they fall in love with Kelly Olynyk, Mason Plumlee or a foreigner, I say yes. The Jazz already have a loaded frontcourt in what is a guard's league. By pairing Larkin in a backcourt with a bigger, experienced guard, the Jazz will have something. Last year, on a Miami team full of seniors, it was Larkin, a sophomore, who was their leader. NBA teams have to like that.
So there it is, picks 1-14. Please feel free to comment and start a debate on any of my selections. And don't forget to watch the draft tomorrow, 7 p.m. on ESPN.
7. Sacramento Kings- Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV.
I wish I saw more of Bennett in his one year of college. But hey, that happens when you play in the Mountain West for a one and done team in the NCAA tourney. Bennett, a Canadian national, is a tweener who's more power forward because of his strength. With this tweener label, you might steer clear of Bennett with Derrick Williams in mind, but a consistent three-point shot is the difference between Williams and Bennett. The Kings have a lot of holes in their roster as usual. The versatile Bennett makes sense here because he can play both forward spots.
8. Detroit Pistons- C.J. McCollum, PG, Lehigh.
McCollum's signature game came two years ago, when he lead 15th seed Lehigh to a win over Duke. He spent most of his senior year on the bench with a broken foot, but some impressive workouts have made McCollum the best small-school player in this draft. The obvious comparison is Damian Lillard, who came out of Weber State to win rookie of the year last season. McCollum might be a better shooter than Lillard, which is why he will be a combo guard in an NBA full of point guards already. Paired with Brandon Knight in Detroit, McCollum will look less like Lillard and more like Ben Gordon in his days with the Bulls.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia.
With such a great name, it's hard to imagine how KCP remained anonymous this past season. In a weak year for the SEC, he was the conference's best player on a bad Georgia team. He's a natural shooting guard and gifted scorer, who fills a need in Minnesota. It's no secret that the Wolves want to move up to grab Oladipo or McLemore. But if the teams at the top won't budge, the Wolves would be smart to stand pat and take Caldwell-Pope at nine.
10. Portland Trail Blazers- Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA.
Muhammad entered the season as one of the two best freshmen. Things haven't gone as smoothly from there, as his one year at UCLA was filled with controversy. Some say that Muhammad is no longer a lottery pick, but I think his NBA talent keeps him in the top ten. His strength and offensive game are the positives, but characters issues have weighed him down. On a talented Blazers team with strong leadership, Muhammad can step in at shooting guard or sixth man and help Portland try to sneak into the playoffs.
11. Philadelphia 76ers- Cody Zeller, PF/C, Indiana.
Clearly the Andrew Bynum trade didn't work out for the Sixers, so why not take a swing at a big man in this draft? There's no doubt that Zeller needs to get stronger, but he's still an NBA athlete who can run the floor like few seven footers. With a frontcourt that really only consists of Spencer Hawes, the Sixers need help. For all the criticism that he took after Indiana's early exit last season, Zeller fits the mold of an NBA big man, and will be helped by a good point guard in Jrue Holiday.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder- Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh.
Adams was not a great college player by any means. Every lottery has at least one project, and Adams is that guy. Fortunately, when you're a championship contender, you can afford to draft projects. From New Zealand, Adams has size, strength and athleticism, but he's not close to putting it all together. If taken by the Thunder, he will likely be a D-league guy. This pick is OKC's last piece of the Harden deal, and while they clearly missed the Beard last season, they won't miss Adams while he develops.
13. Dallas Mavericks- Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse.
The Mavs aren't used to picking in the lottery in the Mark Cuban era, but that's the case this year. MCW is a top ten player in the draft, and if he falls to number 13, Dallas should take him. Darren Collison wasn't the answer at point guard last year, but maybe the 6'6" Carter-Williams is. He's a gifted passer who can get into the lane, and his defense will be good since he's a Syracuse guy. The Mavs will surely make a few moves in free agency, but adding MCW to this veteran team would be the best possible start to their offseason.
14. Utah Jazz- Shane Larkin, PG, Miami.
With Larkin, the main question is size. Should the Jazz use their top pick on a guy who might be six foot. Well, unless they fall in love with Kelly Olynyk, Mason Plumlee or a foreigner, I say yes. The Jazz already have a loaded frontcourt in what is a guard's league. By pairing Larkin in a backcourt with a bigger, experienced guard, the Jazz will have something. Last year, on a Miami team full of seniors, it was Larkin, a sophomore, who was their leader. NBA teams have to like that.
So there it is, picks 1-14. Please feel free to comment and start a debate on any of my selections. And don't forget to watch the draft tomorrow, 7 p.m. on ESPN.
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