Don't Mess With (NBA teams in) Texas

With the Spurs sitting in the comfortable position of awaiting their Finals opponent, they have regained their stranglehold once again on the Lone Star state. For years the Texas Triangle was easily the most daunting road trip in the NBA. Facing the Duncan-Parker-Ginobli Spurs, the Yao-McGrady Rockets and the fully-in-his-prime-Dirk in the span of four days was no fun for anybody. A complete changing of the guard in Houston and a talent drop-off in Dallas put the Spurs in control of Texas once again. But after this season, there could be a new talent infusion in Texas as Dwight Howard and Chris Paul could be leaving L.A.

Let’s start with what we know about Howard. He can make the most money if he signs with the Lakers. He has obviously not fully recovered from back surgery yet. And most frustratingly, he changes his mind almost daily. So it is hard to predict what he will do. But we know he is open to becoming a Rocket. Word is that James Harden went to L.A. on a recruiting trip a few weeks ago and Howard recently followed the Beard on Twitter for what it’s worth. Houston is now trying to trade rookie Thomas Robinson to clear cap space for Howard.

Houston  has to seem attractive to Howard. The opportunity to play with a legit star in Harden, along with a fun system and solid role players in Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin is getting harder to pass up as the Lakers 2013-2014 season looks bleak right now. In a way, Houston is like a better version of the 2009 Magic team that Howard carried to the Finals. We know that three-point shooters around Howard works as a winning team in this league. And pairing him with Harden may just form a championship contender.

Now, on to Paul. CP3 is reportedly upset that he is being blamed for the Clippers firing Vinny Del Negro after their first round exit. This Clips are treading in dangerous water now. Paul has already turned down one extension with them, so it’s conceivable that he’d turn down another one, even though L.A. can pay him more than any other team. For the pitbull that he is on the court, Paul has a spotless reputation in the NBA. There’s no way he wants to be known as a coach-killer. Chris (and Cliff) Paul may be taking their assists somewhere else next season.

Dallas makes the most sense for Paul. He gets a top five coach in Rick Carlisle, an owner willing to spend in Mark Cuban and a Finals MVP sidekick in Dirk Nowitzki. Doesn’t his compare favorably to an unknown commodity at coach and immature, raw big men in Blake Griffin (who Paul has been at odds with) and DeAndre Jordan? A Paul-Nowitzki Mavs team with cap space would be an attractive free agent destination. And who better than CP3 to make everything gel?

It was a sad L.A. story for Paul and especially Howard. And in order to overtake the Spurs in the West, they may have to join them in the Lone Star state to fulfill their championship aspirations.

Heat-Pacers Preview

Yes, the Eastern Conference Finals are happening. After the Pacers dispatched the Knicks on Saturday night, the matchup of Miami-Indiana was set, and yet Game 1 was slated for Wednesday, making the Heat wait a week between series’ for a second time in these playoffs. But finally, with the game tomorrow, we can preview Heat-Pacers, a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Semis.

The Pacers impressively took out the Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks in six games by using their length offensively and defensively to get better quality of shots and hold New York to low shooting percentages. Like the Knicks, the Heat play small-ball, with their most dynamic player as a stretch 3-4. So they’ll be able to do the same thing to Miami as they did to the Knicks, right?

Not really. Miami isn’t New York. LeBron James is not Carmelo. And Dwyane Wade, albeit banged up, is a much more reliable second scorer than J.R. Smith. Staying hypothetical, let’s go over how the Pacers might beat the Heat.

George Hill at the point may be able to get hot from 3, exploit the Heat’s defensive traps and become an reliable perimeter scorer that Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole struggle to defend. Lance Stephenson may be able to make life miserable on Wade, forcing the ill-advised fadaways that Wade has resorted to with his injured knee. Paul George might just be able to defend LeBron himself, causing the King to shoot under 50 percent and making his passes to openshooters less effective. David West may out-muscle Miami, and become an X-factor in the frontcourt. And Roy Hibbert just might fully use his size advantage against Chris Bosh, and go for 20 points every night, along with five blocks on the defensive end. That all sounds great for Indiana and coach Frank Vogel, but one thing, THIS IS A FLAWED PACERS TEAM.

They only score 92 PPG. They’re a lock for 15+ turnovers. The Heat will out-shoot them from 3. George, a first time All-Star this year and bright young player, will have to make a monumental leap if he hopes to go toe-to-toe with LeBron on both ends. Hibbert, a quality center, is not regarded as a consistent star in the NBA because of his inability to use his size to his advantage every game. And if things go right for Indiana and these are close games late in the fourth quarter, the advantage will still go to the team with the world’s best player on it.

Prediction: Heat in 5

Heat defeat Bulls; Take 3-1 series lead

Was it the Marquis Teague tip into the wrong basket? Or the nine point third quarter? Or the Norris Cole 3 to end that third quarter? Any of these things could sum up the Bulls’ night, as they very much looked like an undermanned team, getting throttled 88-65 against Miami.

After shooting just 25 percent for the game, you have to wonder if this Bulls team is running on empty. Their catalyst, Nate Robinson, who had been at the center of huge wins in Game 4 versus Brooklyn and Game 1 against the Heat, scored zero points, on 0-12 shooting. Their emotional leader, Joakim Noah, had six point on only one made basket. After getting blown out for the second time in three games, it looks like Game 5 in Miami could be it for the Bulls’ season.

As for the Heat, they coasted through most of the second half, holding the Bulls to that nine-point third quarter and leading by 19 to begin the fourth. LeBron James lead all scorers with 27 points, to go with seven boards and eight dimes. The Heat were uncharacteristically sloppy for parts of the second and third quarters, but their defense kept the Bulls from ever really being in the game.

Chris Bosh, who scored 12 points in the first half, was LeBron’s main sidekick early on. In the second half, everyone got in the scoring mix for the Heat, as LeBron started settling in and finding open shooters. Dwyane Wade, whose six points all came in the third quarter, looked banged up after a small collision in the first half. His health will be a concern as Miami goes forward.

So after shocking the Heat and winning Game 1 in Miami, the tide has turned on the Bulls and they had back down 3-1. Game 5 is Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET on TNT.

Every series is tied 1-1. Now what?

After the first two games of every round one series, the home teams were 14-2, but that’s not the case in round two. Everyone is 1-1 in what is shaping up to be a wild second round filled with ejections, comebacks and epic individual scoring performances. In fact, it’s so wild, I won’t even bother to predict the outcome of any series. But with what we already know from games 1 and 2, here’s an outlook at games 3 and 4.

Heat vs. Bulls

Heading back to Chicago, how will the Bulls react to that game 2 beatdown? Expect Joakim Noah with help from the crowd to energize the team. Remember how well they bounced back after that blowout loss in game 1 against Brooklyn? But obviously the Heat are not the Nets, and this is familiar territory for them. Each of the last two playoffs, Miami has dropped a game 1 and then went on to win the series in five, including the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals against these Bulls. We saw the Heat equal the Bulls’ toughness level last night, but they also found a way to score efficiently and stop the Chicago’s limited offensive attack. Tom Thibodeau will need to make adjustments, and quick, or else this series will be 3-1 Miami after game 4.

Knicks vs. Pacers

So far in the playoffs, the Pacers are 3-0 at home, with three dominant wins over the Hawks in round one. This series is especially hard to pick because neither game in New York was close. Carmelo Anthony’s scoring has been there, but the efficiency hasn’t. And for sixth man J.R. Smith, neither scoring, nor efficiency has been there since getting ejected from that game 3 in Boston. The Knicks need their leading scorers to carry the offense, but it doesn’t help when they’re taking 50+ shots a game. Expect this series to tighten up in Indiana, so much so that this one will be headed back to New York tied 2-2.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies

Memphis dictated the flow of games 1 and 2, and if not for standard Kevin Durant heroics in game 1, they’d be up 2-0. Marc Gasol is playing at the top of his game, being the center of everything the Grizzlies do offensively and defensively. Mike Conley is improving on a national stage, and if not for Stephen Curry, he’d be the breakout star of these playoffs. Durant is literally doing it all for OKC and it still hasn’t been enough sometimes. Nothing is coming easily to the Thunder as a team right now. With Serge Ibaka and Kevin Martin having been inconsistent on the road, Durant faces even more of a burden in Memphis, where I expect the Grizzlies to roll to a 3-1 lead.

Spurs vs. Warriors

I try to learn something from every game I watch, but game 1 was so entertaining, all I really learned is that this thing is going seven. Even after blowing a huge lead and then almost blowing another, don’t the Warriors have to feel good? They are outplaying the Spurs for the majority of games, and stole home court advantage, which is huge when coming back to Oracle Arena’s sea of gold. Can they expect Curry and Klay Thompson to have career game every night? Well maybe, but even if they don’t, role players such as Carl Landry and Draymond Green will play better at home. However, the old guard Spurs, partly lead by new guys Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, are not going down 3-1. They’ll win a game in Oracle, and this one will be tied heading back to the Alamo.

Can The Bulls Close It Out?

With Kirk Hinrich likely out, Taj Gibson and Luol Deng game-time decisions, and no miracle signs pointing to a Derrick Rose return tonight, the Bulls will be shorthanded in their second effort to wrap up their first round series against Brooklyn.

Game 6 will be Chicago’s last chance to close out the Nets at home, and avoid going back to Brooklyn for Game 7 in which they’d have no momentum. Injuries have been part of the Bulls struggles so far this series, so the possibility of missing three rotation players for a series clinching game is worrisome. We saw Joakim Noah at his most hobbled in the Game 1 blowout loss and we saw how Hinrich’s absence left the Bulls with no one to stop Deron Williams in the Game 5 loss.

Hinrich missing a second straight game will again leave Williams to be guarded by the undersized and offense-minded Nate Robinson. Deng has done a nice job guarding the hobbled Joe Johnson, but the Bulls will miss his offense just as much. Even though he hasn’t shot great this series, no Deng would mean only reliable scoring from Robinson and Carlos Boozer, with occasional offensive contribution from Noah. As for Gibson, he’s missed time this year already, but he provides a solid defensive presence off the bench.

The Bulls can win a game in Brooklyn, but they don’t want the series to head back there. This game tonight is essentially a must-win for both teams. They will have to grind it out like they’ve done all year and hope that Robinson continues his hot shooting, otherwise the points may be scarce. If the Bulls can play their signature tight defense with whoever they have on the court tonight, they will have a chance to close this series out and avoid a Game 7 in front of a raucous Brooklyn crowd.

What Westbrook's Injury Means

   The news today was shocking to say the least. Russell Westbrook, the Thunder's dynamic point guard and half of highest scoring duo in the NBA would be out indefinitely due to surgery on his torn meniscus. Not only was the news pure shock because Westbrook has never missed a game in his basketball career, but also because the Thunder's title chances are effectively over, after most expected them to rematch with Miami in the Finals. So what does this mean for OKC, Durant and the rest of the playoff teams?

   For the Thunder, it means Reggie Jackson will be playing around 36 minutes a night, after averaging only 13 in his short career. It means Derek Fisher will have to do more than he expected when he signed on with the Thunder two months ago. It means a more aggressive Kevin Martin. It means Serge Ibaka as the Thunder's second best player. But really for OKC, it all starts with one man.                      

   Kevin Durant said in Sports Illustrated this week that he's tired of being second. Well now, without Westbrook, OKC may not advance far enough to even be second. Durant has absolutely no reason to hold anything back now. Going for 40+ points will have to be the norm, and even that won't guarantee a Thunder win. The Thunder have always been Durant's team, and now, the man who helps him (most of the time) run the show is gone. For the rest of these playoffs, everyone will be giving KD the same advice: Just keep shooting. 

   How do the Thunder stack up in the West without their point guard? Already up 2-0 on Houston, they should still be able to dispatch the Rockets sans Westbrook. After that, it's iffy. The winner of Clippers-Grizzlies will have just won a tough series, and will be plenty primed to knock off OKC. The Spurs, getting healthier now, will be waiting should the Thunder meet them in the conference finals. And if the Thunder somehow make the Finals and Westbrook is not back? Miami will feel good about a matchup in which they have three of the four best players. 

   For the second year in a row, the NBA playoffs will be partly associated with the injury to one of the league's best point guards. Westbrook has his critics, but today, everybody's on his side and hoping he makes a fast recovery. Who would have thought that a seemingly minor collision between two point guards would cause such a shake up in the playoffs? 

    

   

First Round Playoff Predicitons

Eastern Conference
1 Heat vs. 8 Bucks
Let's start with an easy one here. The defending champs take on Milwaukee in what is the most onesided first round matchup. Sure, Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis may go off to make a game close. And Larry Sanders has the energy inside to cause trouble for Miami on the boards. But really, LeBron and Co. should have enough to advance in relatively easy fashion. Heat in 4. 

2 Knicks vs. 7 Celtics
The East's most intriguing matchup pits the league's leading scorer against a veteran group playing for a city with a heavy heart. The Knicks can rely on Carmelo's offense while hoping Tyson Chandler will be healthy enough to anchor the defense and J.R. Smith can maintain his hot shooting of the past two months. The Celtics have several injury question marks with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce banged up, but Doc Rivers will get his team to play at a high level. Expect this series to be tight throughout but, Knicks in 6. 

3 Pacers vs. 6 Hawks
For the second straight year, the Pacers enter as the three seed against a team that is not playing their best basketball of the season. The Hawks overachieved this year, as it was widely known they were looking to make their biggest splashes in the offseason. However Indiana isn't playing their best either, losing four of their last six. Combine the Pacers toughness at home with a mediocre Hawks crowd that is ready to see Josh Smith depart, and it's Pacers in 5. 

4 Nets vs. 5 Bulls
With Deron Williams finally in shape and playing great again, this series becomes interesting. A rare series with two All-Star centers going at it, it'll be Joakim Noah versus Brook Lopez. The more physical Noah gets the edge there, which will be a theme in this series. If Noah shuts down Lopez and Luol Deng contains Joe Johnson, Williams's scoring shouldn't be a problem. The Nets really struggle against good teams and the Bulls are as healthy as they've been all year. Bulls in 6. 

Western Conference
1 Thunder vs. 8 Rockets
It could be a tough homecoming for James Harden against OKC. Harden can and probably will play great against his old boys, but Lin on Westbrook and Parsons on Durant are brutal matchups for the Rockets. A hot shooting Houston team may be able to pull off the upset, but this one looks like Thunder in 5. 

2 Spurs vs. 7 Lakers
Half of the stars in this series were in their prime five years ago, but that's okay, it looks to be hugely entertaining still. The Kobe-less Lakers are inspired. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol are starting to click, and may be able to give Tim Duncan problems in the frontcourt. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli aren't fully healthy. This is the matchup the Lakers wanted and we see why here. Lakers in 6. 

3 Nuggets vs. 6 Warriors
High point totals will be the norm here, and no fans will be complaining. The Nuggets were a true sleeper until Danilo Gallinari went down and the Warriors enter with little experience, but Stephen Curry's shooting alone should carry this young team to one or two wins. The Denver homecourt advantage may be too much for the young Dubs this year, and it's Nuggets in 6. 

4 Clippers vs 5 Grizzlies
A rematch of last year's 4-5 matchup that the Grizz feel they would've won, this time it's Lob City with the homecourt advantage. The frontcourt battle will be intersting with the Clippers athletic duo of Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan against the tough Memphis duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. A huge bench advantage for L.A. plus the brilliance of Chris Paul makes this series Clippers in 7.