Heat-Pacers Preview

Yes, the Eastern Conference Finals are happening. After the Pacers dispatched the Knicks on Saturday night, the matchup of Miami-Indiana was set, and yet Game 1 was slated for Wednesday, making the Heat wait a week between series’ for a second time in these playoffs. But finally, with the game tomorrow, we can preview Heat-Pacers, a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Semis.

The Pacers impressively took out the Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks in six games by using their length offensively and defensively to get better quality of shots and hold New York to low shooting percentages. Like the Knicks, the Heat play small-ball, with their most dynamic player as a stretch 3-4. So they’ll be able to do the same thing to Miami as they did to the Knicks, right?

Not really. Miami isn’t New York. LeBron James is not Carmelo. And Dwyane Wade, albeit banged up, is a much more reliable second scorer than J.R. Smith. Staying hypothetical, let’s go over how the Pacers might beat the Heat.

George Hill at the point may be able to get hot from 3, exploit the Heat’s defensive traps and become an reliable perimeter scorer that Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole struggle to defend. Lance Stephenson may be able to make life miserable on Wade, forcing the ill-advised fadaways that Wade has resorted to with his injured knee. Paul George might just be able to defend LeBron himself, causing the King to shoot under 50 percent and making his passes to openshooters less effective. David West may out-muscle Miami, and become an X-factor in the frontcourt. And Roy Hibbert just might fully use his size advantage against Chris Bosh, and go for 20 points every night, along with five blocks on the defensive end. That all sounds great for Indiana and coach Frank Vogel, but one thing, THIS IS A FLAWED PACERS TEAM.

They only score 92 PPG. They’re a lock for 15+ turnovers. The Heat will out-shoot them from 3. George, a first time All-Star this year and bright young player, will have to make a monumental leap if he hopes to go toe-to-toe with LeBron on both ends. Hibbert, a quality center, is not regarded as a consistent star in the NBA because of his inability to use his size to his advantage every game. And if things go right for Indiana and these are close games late in the fourth quarter, the advantage will still go to the team with the world’s best player on it.

Prediction: Heat in 5