How Dwight Howard Can Become an All-Time Great

If you've watched basketball at all for the last two years, you're right, the title is crazy. Dwight Howard, who after a dramatic free agency pursuit chose the Rockets to be his third team in three years last night, should be out of any all-time great conversation by now. I won't deny that it's a stretch, or even crazy, but Howard becoming a top-20 player of all-time is not out of the question. There's a possibility that, at the end of his career, we'll be looking at Howard's name right behind Hakeem Olajuwon and Moses Malone on the list of great centers.

I chose Moses and Hakeem for contemporaries because ideally, Howard can become a mixture of these two dominant centers. Howard can never be part of the Russell, Kareem and Wilt level, and he's almost certainly out of the Shaq/Duncan conversation. But Hakeem and Moses? Howard just might be able to scratch the surface of these two greats, while also following their career arcs to an extent (he's already on his way by becoming a Rocket). So let's take a nice, hypothetical walk down the road in Houston and see how Dwight Howard can stack up historically if things go right.

1. Howard wins 2014 MVP, 2014 title and Finals MVP.

Well I didn't waste time in making a stretch, did I? You're thinking how can Howard possibly be MVP in a league with LeBron, two dominant scorers (Melo and Durant), a slew of elite point guards, and some aging greats who are still hungry for a ring (Kobe, Duncan, Dirk). Howard has one advantage that LeBron, Durant, Melo and Chris Paul do not have, low personal expectations. The way to "steal" and MVP is to win when you're not expected to. Often times, leaping expectations will lead to voters giving the MVP to a guy, even if he's not the best player in the league (Rose 2011). If Durant, Paul and Melo (all superstars coming off good seasons) don't improve on their team or individual success in 2013-2014 and voters get tired of picking LeBron (happened with Jordan), then Howard is just one vintage 2009 or 2010 season away from becoming MVP. Yeah I know, easier said than done.

Okay, so Dwight has won MVP. He's a third of the way there. Let's say that the Rockets get to the Finals, winning a tough series over the Clippers and a sweet revenge series over the Thunder in the process. The Rockets are now matched up with Miami. The Rockets' three-point attack works against the Heat's hyper-aggressive D, with Chandler Parsons becoming Danny Green 2.0. Harden clearly outplays an aged Dwyane Wade and Howard has a DOMINANT series by crushing Chris Bosh on the boards, and completely punishing the Heat's small ball strategy. LeBron does all he can, but the Rockets, with two of the best three players in the series, dethrone the Heat. It's crucial that Howard wins Finals MVP to cap off his great year. This is his '83 Moses/'94 Hakeem moment. His giant smile and shoulders pop out of the TV screen as he holds up both trophies in an empty Miami arena. Finally, this championship gets him back on the redemption track.

2. Howard and the Rockets contend for the next five to seven years, winning another title along the way.

The hardest part is over, the pressure is off. Coming off that behemoth 2014 season, Howard and Harden are officially the best tandem in the league because they don't have the problem of two ball-dominant stars (Durant/Westbrook). The two trade off nights being the Rockets best player, with the inside-out system being the team's truest star. Howard starts every all-star game in this time, and becomes the only great center of his era. As he hits 30, his athleticism lessens, but his skills and footwork only get better (a perk of being coached by McHale and being trained by Hakeem). Howard may not win another MVP, but he's perennially in the top five in voting, and league's best big man. And most importantly, the Rockets win another title at some point. Howard doesn't have to be Finals MVP this time. It's obvious that he's a great player and he's so synonymous with Houston's success that Harden edging him for Finals MVP doesn't mean anything against his legacy. Dwight ages gracefully, defying his mid-career injury problems and retires a Rocket. Number 12 hangs in the Houston rafters.

And that's all Dwight has to do to become an all-time great. It's only a two-step process. His Rockets team mirrors Hakeem's with that floor spacing of shooters and Howard in the middle of it all. Throw in a dash of Moses, as it takes Howard's third team to get the best out of him. And there you have it: Dwight Howard, top 20 player ever. It can be done.