Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Wall Reaching His Potential

   Fresh off scoring a career-high 47 points against a great defensive team in Memphis, John Wall is officially playing the best basketball of his career. His Wizards are 21-16 since Wall returned from a knee injury that sidelined him for the first half of the season. Wall's improved play this year raises some intriguing questions about the third-year point guard finally playing to his potential.
   A restricted free agent in 2014, speculation has begun about Wall receiving a max contract extension within the next year. From a talent level, it's a no-brainer. Wall's speed and athleticism at the point is rivaled only by Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. From a production level, there is a debate. Wall has averaged 16 points and eight assists in his career, but his turnover rate has been high and is shooting percentage has been worrisome.
   But this year, things are different. All of his shooting percentages are up, most notably that all-important three-point percentage has risen above 31 percent. His assists are down, but that's not bad. This guy is a scorer who should be going for 20 every night. In the midst of a torrid 10-game stretch in which he is averaging 24 points, nine assists and almost two steals.
   Does Wall deserve a max deal? Yes, the Wizards should build around the talented Kentucky guard they chose number one overall.
   Can Wall be an All-Star next season? NBA All-Star teams have notoriously low turnover rates, so it's important first to ask which guards will be taken out of the lineup. Dwyane Wade is firmly locked in as a starer, that leaves only one guard spot. Victims of ACL tears, Rose and Rajon Rondo looked to have a stranglehold on the point guard spot, due to their huge, supportive fan bases, but as we know, injuries change everything.
   The beneficiaries of those injuries this year were Kyrie Irving and Jrue Holiday. Irving, only 20 and already hugely popular, has all the look of a superstar, so he's not going anywhere. Holiday has improved every season and got a deserved All-Star nod in his fourth season. Throw in the possibility of Deron Williams actually playing well next season and that is a lot of people for Wall to leap frog.
   But I think Wall gets in. Here's the scenario: Derrick Rose gets the start in his comeback season. The Bulls are a good team and Rose's national popularity and comeback appeal earns the 2011 MVP a deserved start. The first back-up spot will be Irving's. He is better than Wall and just too likable not to be part of the All-Star experience every single year. But I think Wall further improves next season and earns an All-Star bid. With no solid 2-guard to back-up Wade, two spots will be open in the East backcourt and Wall will slide into one of those, creating a really good moment for the he and the Wizards.
   So yes, John Wall is playing great. Yes, he is a max player. Yes, he can be an All-Star. But can the Wiz make the playoffs? Eh, stay tuned.       

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